Table of Contents
Evaluation and Perspectives
Introduction
The year 2025 presents a period of great uncertainties and challenges for the world, marked by Donald Trump’s return to power in the United States. This change in geopolitical leadership has significant implications for Europe, which finds itself at a crossroads. As the United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has quoted, the world is facing a deepening energy and climate crisis. This article analyzes the main risks and how they could affect Spanish companies.
The Return of Donald Trump
Donald Trump’s return to the White House brings a series of policies that could significantly alter the global landscape. Trump has announced his intention to impose tariffs and demand greater investments from NATO member countries. This could create additional tensions with Europe, especially when Germany and France are experiencing significant economic stagnation. Trump’s friendly relationship with Vladimir Putin could also shift the balance of power on the continent. The first meeting between the two leaders is just around the corner, potentially marked by threats of sanctions against Russia if it refuses to negotiate an end to the war in Ukraine and by the possible withdrawal of aid to Kyiv. The scenario is volatile and highly unpredictable.
Drill, Baby, Drill
The United States has broken with the Green New Deal. The government has abandoned support for renewables and has turned its back on electric vehicles (we’ll see how Elon Musk and Tesla adapt). In this climate denialist approach, they have decided to drill extensively for oil and gas, attempting to extract all available crude. However, many experts claim that the most accessible shale oil reserves have already been discovered, and there may only be a few years left before the energy return rate (EROI) makes extraction unfeasible. Meanwhile, China will continue its focus on renewables and electric vehicles, albeit with subsidies and the use of coal for manufacturing wind turbines and solar panels. We’ll see what happens during the first Trump-Xi meeting.
Impact on the European Union
Europe faces the difficult task of navigating this new geopolitical climate. Germany’s automotive industry, long a pillar of its economy, is experiencing a slowdown. Some media outlets even claim the industry is “kaputt.” France is facing similar issues. Spain is not immune to these challenges, as electric vehicles and renewable energies are falling short of expectations both locally and across the EU. Wind turbines and wind energy in Spain face significant obstacles, exacerbating the electricity generation crisis. The crisis at Siemens Gamesa, with German divestment amounting to €2.4 billion, and strong local resistance to renewable installations further complicate the situation.
The economic crises affecting Europe’s powerhouses, Germany and France may reach Spain soon, starting with furloughs in sectors like automotive, industry, and renewables. Polarization and misinformation are also rising, partly explaining the strong emergence of the far right across the continent. We’ll soon see the impact of this in Germany’s February elections.
The Role of Artificial Intelligence
The growing demand for electricity due to the rise of artificial intelligence is placing unprecedented pressure on global energy systems. The Stargate agreement entails an unprecedented investment that will lead to a significant increase in electricity and water consumption, straining distribution networks. Elon Musk recently announced severe electricity supply issues due to the high energy consumption of AI and large data centers. Adding to this are instabilities caused by conflicts like the war in Ukraine, presenting an uncertain and volatile outlook.
The Influence of BRICS and China
The growth of BRICS and their confrontation with the West, along with China’s dominant position in extracting critical resources like lithium and copper pose additional risks. Trump is already proposing 100% tariffs against them. China, which continues to grow by relying on coal consumption, is taking strategic positions that could have global repercussions. Its control over the extraction of scarce lithium and copper is already creating significant problems, compounded by its dominance of rare earth minerals essential for maintaining the current technological system.
Warfare Scenarios
Although Trump’s return to power has coincided with a ceasefire in Gaza, its longevity remains uncertain—even Trump himself has expressed doubts about its sustainability. The Middle East may see major upheavals in 2025, including Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, and Iran. Volatility and uncertainty remain very high. As for Ukraine, achieving a ceasefire that satisfies all parties will not be easy. If Kyiv refuses to compromise, the lack of U.S. support could force it to lose the war within weeks. The EU and the UK alone are currently incapable of financing the war effort, and Ukraine not only lacks the capacity but also the manpower to sustain the fight compared to Russia. Other potential scenarios, such as U.S. involvement in Taiwan, warrant close attention, particularly regarding chip production, as the technology industry cannot function without them.
Impact on Spanish Companies
The tariff policies proposed by Donald Trump, including the threat of a 100% tariff on Spain (though this will likely be much lower), could have a devastating impact on Spanish exports and industries, particularly in the food sector. Spanish companies must prepare to face these challenges by adapting their strategies and seeking to diversify their markets.
ESG and Governance
Regarding ESG criteria, commitments made by companies and investment funds such as BlackRock have significantly declined. BlackRock, for example, has recently withdrawn support from a major industrial group focused on climate change, with its backing of shareholder proposals on environmental and social issues dropping from 47% in 2021 to 4% last year.
Additionally, the six largest U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Citigroup, Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Goldman Sachs—recently left the Net-Zero Banking Alliance. CEOs worldwide are now looking to Washington, quickly adapting their strategies, principles, and values.
To mitigate these risks, Spanish companies could consider the following strategies:
- Market Diversification: Explore new markets outside the U.S. and Europe to reduce dependency.
- Investment in Technology: Adopt sustainable and efficient technologies to reduce energy costs and increase competitiveness.
- International Collaboration: Strengthen alliances with companies and governments in other countries to build resilience against tariff policies and geopolitical tensions.
- Product Innovation: Develop innovative products that meet new market demands and environmental regulations.
Conclusion
The current geopolitical context presents significant challenges for 2025. The influence of Donald Trump, the energy and climate crisis, and international tensions require Spanish companies to adopt proactive strategies to mitigate risks. Only through adaptation and innovation can they successfully navigate these uncertain times.